The question

Which renewals are at risk this quarter, and how do we defend the ones that matter?

Renewal risk usually shows up late: procurement asks what they got for the money, and the team scrambles for proof. By then the only evidence is activity, and activity isn’t value.

Where it sits on the loop

The customer side: Onboarding, Evidenced, Expansion and Renewed. It’s the monthly renewal review and the customer business review. What happens here feeds back into new pipeline: customers who can show results become proof for outreach, and expansion becomes pipeline.

How to think about it

Value is proven from day zero, not in renewal week.

Agree the outcomes at signing. What the customer expects to change, how it’s measured, and by when. Without that, there’s nothing to show progress against.
Log evidence as it happens. A dated result tied to an agreed outcome is proof. A note that the customer “seemed happy” isn’t.
Separate the book from the account. “How much is renewing and how much is at risk?” is a portfolio question. “How do we defend this one?” is a promise-to-impact question about one contract. They need different evidence.
Know what you can’t forecast. A renewal book tells you exposure. Net revenue retention also needs churn, contraction and expansion on the same basis; if you don’t have them, don’t quote a number.

Common mistakes

Starting in renewal week. The defence is written from memory, after the customer has already decided.
Defending with activity. Meetings held and tickets closed, instead of outcomes delivered against what was promised.
Reading a snapshot as a trend. One at-risk figure is quoted as “rising” with nothing to compare it to.

In Summit53

1. The renewal book

Open Accounts → Value & Impact. The renewal banner reads how much of the renewal book lands in the next 90 days, how much is at risk, and the commit and best-case figures.
Sort by Renewal (soonest), and use the filters Under-delivering and Needs data to find accounts with no proof yet.
On the Revenue Engine, the Customer Success view (?persona=cs_leader) has two cards: Renewal Forecast (Renewal book, At risk · N accts, Commit, Best case, and the reason each at-risk account is flagged) and CS Movers (Movers down, Movers up, At risk in 30 days).

See Value & Impact and Revenue Engine home.

2. One account

Open the account. Value delivered shows its fulfilment score, or No value data until an analysis has run.
On Contracts & Value, check each contract’s Renews date and whether it has a Value Contract. Value Contract needs review means it’s missing, still a draft, or weakly evidenced.
On the source opportunity’s Value Contract tab, confirm the promised outcomes, then add impact entries against them in Value & Impact.

See Account cockpit.

From Claude or Codex

The book: What’s renewing in the next 90 days across my book, and how much ARR is at risk? The cs-renewal-forecast skill returns a renewal outlook for 30 to 180 days: ARR due, at-risk exposure, commit and best-case, the top at-risk accounts and health movement. Asked what NRR will be, it labels the answer a renewal exposure outlook, not an NRR forecast.
One account’s defence: Procurement is pushing back on <account>’s renewal. Help me defend it. or Save plan for <account> — their renewal is at risk. The renewal-defence-pack skill sets out the contract, each promise against the evidence delivered, proof points worded for procurement, and the gaps that weaken the case.
The customer meeting: Prep a customer QBR for <account> — what value have we delivered this quarter? The customer-qbr skill prepares a customer-safe review of agreed outcomes, verified progress and measurement gaps. It strips internal scores, forecasts and notes before anything reaches the customer.

All three only read your data.

When the data is thin

No promise, no defence. If an account has no recorded promised outcomes, the defence stops with a readiness note listing what’s missing. If outcomes exist but no impact has been logged, it’s marked Partial — delivered-impact evidence missing.
Not ready for the customer. If no claim is backed by evidence, the customer review returns Not ready for customer delivery with a preparation checklist instead of slides.
No invented trends. Summit53 doesn’t keep past snapshots of the renewal book, so the outlook never says it went up or down. Health movement is shown only where two real snapshots exist.
Missing is missing. An account never analysed shows No value data or sits under Needs data, not under at risk or on track.
Who sees it. The renewal banner, the Renewal Forecast card and the renewal outlook need team-metrics access, or a Customer Success leader role for the card. Others see an access message or nothing.
Directional, not predictive. At risk in 30 days extends a recent trend.

Do it this week

List every contract renewing in the next 90 days, with its ARR and renewal date.
For each, write the outcomes the customer was promised. Mark any with none written down.
Beside each outcome, add the most recent dated evidence. Mark the gaps.
Rank the list by ARR and evidence gap together. The top three get a defence this week.
For new customers signed this month, write their agreed outcomes now.

Troubleshooting

The renewal banner isn’t there. It needs team-metrics access, and it hides when nothing renews in the next 90 days.
An account shows No value data. No Value & Impact analysis has run for it yet.
The defence stopped early. The account has no recorded promised outcomes. Add them to the Value Contract on the source opportunity.
A card says it’s only for CS leaders and managers. Ask an admin about your functional role.

Renewal review: which renewals are at risk, and how do we defend them?