Overview
This guide explains how scoring works in the Pipeline Intelligence dashboard, helping you understand how risk scores, forecast confidence, and various risk factors are calculated and what they mean for your opportunities.
Risk Score (0-100%)
The Risk Score represents the overall health of your opportunity on a scale from 0 to 100%. Higher scores indicate healthier opportunities with lower risk.
How it's calculated:
Risk Score combines four weighted components:
- 50% Framework Completeness
- 20% Contact Risk
- 20% Activity Drag
- 10% Rep Commitment Level
Risk Score = (Framework Completeness × 0.5) + (Contact Risk × 0.2) + (Activity Drag × 0.2) + (Rep Commitment × 0.1)
What it means:
- 70-100%: Healthy opportunity with low risk
- 40-69%: Moderate risk, requires attention
- 0-39%: High risk, significant action needed
Forecast Confidence (0-100%)
Forecast Confidence indicates the likelihood of closing the deal as forecasted. It adds situational context beyond the risk score.
How it's calculated:
Starting with the base risk score, we apply several adjustments:
- Base Score: Starts with risk score (e.g., 62%)
- Activity Adjustment:
- +10% for activity in the last 14 days
- +5% for activity in the last 15-30 days
- Stage Adjustment:
- +5% for Proposal or Negotiation stage
- +15% for Closed Won
- Forecast Category Adjustment:
- +10% for "Commit" category
- +5% for "Best Case" category
- Close Date Adjustment:
- -5% for each time the close date has been pushed
Forecast Confidence = Base Score + Activity Adj + Stage Adj + Category Adj + Close Date Adj
The final score is capped between 5% and 95% to maintain realistic confidence levels.
What it means:
- 70-95%: High confidence in forecast accuracy
- 40-69%: Moderate confidence, monitor closely
- 5-39%: Low confidence, forecast may be optimistic
Risk Factors
Framework Completeness (0-100%)
Measures how thoroughly you've documented opportunity health using sales frameworks (MEDDPIC, BANT, SPICED).
How it's calculated:
Weighted average of framework completion based on opportunity stage:
- Early stages: BANT (70%), SPICED (30%)
- Late stages: MEDDPIC (80%), BANT (20%)
- Mid stages: MEDDPIC (40%), BANT (30%), SPICED (30%)
Contact Risk (0-100%)
Measures stakeholder engagement and relationship health.
How it's calculated:
- 60% based on presence of key stakeholders (Economic Buyer, Champion)
- 40% based on recency of contact with key stakeholders (last 30 days)
Activity Drag (0-100%)
Measures momentum and recent engagement on the opportunity.
How it's calculated:
- 70% based on recent activity (higher scores for 2+ activities in past 14 days)
- 30% based on close date stability (fewer changes = higher score)
Rep Commitment Level (0-100%)
Measures the sales rep's confidence in the opportunity.
How it's calculated:
Based on forecast category:
- Commit: 90%
- Best Case: 70%
- Pipeline: 50%
- Omitted: 20%
- Closed Won: 100%
- Closed Lost: 0%
Using Scores Effectively
- Compare Risk Score vs. Forecast Confidence: A significant difference suggests external factors (like timing, budget cycles) that may impact closing
- Monitor Risk Factors: Address the lowest factors first (they have the biggest impact on improving overall scores)
- Framework Completeness: This has the highest impact (50%) on your overall risk score - keep frameworks updated
- Take Action on Triggers: Risk triggers in the dashboard highlight specific actions to improve scores
Best Practices
- Update sales frameworks regularly - especially after key stakeholder meetings
- Log all key stakeholder interactions - improves Contact Risk scores
- Maintain regular activity - prevents Activity Drag deterioration
- Be realistic with forecast categories - improves Rep Commitment accuracy
- Avoid moving close dates - stabilizes forecast confidence
By understanding these scoring mechanisms, you can strategically improve the health of your pipeline and increase forecast accuracy.